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Dakota Dunes, South Dakota 7 Day Weather Forecast
Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation
NWS Forecast for 2 Miles S North Sioux City SD
National Weather Service Forecast for: 2 Miles S North Sioux City SD
Issued by: National Weather Service Sioux Falls, SD
Updated: 11:01 pm CDT Jun 6, 2025
 
Overnight

Overnight: A 10 percent chance of showers after 5am.  Mostly cloudy, with a low around 58. Calm wind.
Slight Chance
Showers

Saturday

Saturday: A chance of showers before 1pm, then a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms between 1pm and 2pm.  Cloudy, then gradually becoming mostly sunny, with a high near 80. Calm wind becoming west southwest around 5 mph in the afternoon.  Chance of precipitation is 30%.
Chance
Showers then
Slight Chance
T-storms
Saturday
Night
Saturday Night: A 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms after 1am.  Partly cloudy, with a low around 57. Southwest wind 5 to 10 mph becoming northwest after midnight.
Partly Cloudy
then Chance
T-storms
Sunday

Sunday: A chance of showers and thunderstorms before 7am, then a chance of showers between 7am and 1pm.  Mostly sunny, with a high near 77. Breezy, with a west northwest wind 10 to 20 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph.  Chance of precipitation is 30%.
Chance
Showers and
Breezy
Sunday
Night
Sunday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 52. West wind 10 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph.
Mostly Clear

Monday

Monday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 73. Breezy, with a west northwest wind 10 to 20 mph, with gusts as high as 30 mph.
Mostly Sunny
and Breezy

Monday
Night
Monday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 49.
Mostly Clear

Tuesday

Tuesday: Sunny, with a high near 82.
Sunny

Tuesday
Night
Tuesday Night: Clear, with a low around 54.
Clear

Lo 58 °F Hi 80 °F Lo 57 °F Hi 77 °F Lo 52 °F Hi 73 °F Lo 49 °F Hi 82 °F Lo 54 °F

Hazardous Weather Outlook
 

Overnight
 
A 10 percent chance of showers after 5am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 58. Calm wind.
Saturday
 
A chance of showers before 1pm, then a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms between 1pm and 2pm. Cloudy, then gradually becoming mostly sunny, with a high near 80. Calm wind becoming west southwest around 5 mph in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation is 30%.
Saturday Night
 
A 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms after 1am. Partly cloudy, with a low around 57. Southwest wind 5 to 10 mph becoming northwest after midnight.
Sunday
 
A chance of showers and thunderstorms before 7am, then a chance of showers between 7am and 1pm. Mostly sunny, with a high near 77. Breezy, with a west northwest wind 10 to 20 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%.
Sunday Night
 
Mostly clear, with a low around 52. West wind 10 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph.
Monday
 
Mostly sunny, with a high near 73. Breezy, with a west northwest wind 10 to 20 mph, with gusts as high as 30 mph.
Monday Night
 
Mostly clear, with a low around 49.
Tuesday
 
Sunny, with a high near 82.
Tuesday Night
 
Clear, with a low around 54.
Wednesday
 
Sunny, with a high near 89.
Wednesday Night
 
Partly cloudy, with a low around 63.
Thursday
 
A 30 percent chance of showers. Mostly sunny, with a high near 87.
Thursday Night
 
A 40 percent chance of showers. Partly cloudy, with a low around 64.
Friday
 
A 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Partly sunny, with a high near 86.

 

Forecast from NOAA-NWS for 2 Miles S North Sioux City SD.

Weather Forecast Discussion
995
FXUS63 KUNR 070443
AFDUNR

Area Forecast Discussion For Western SD and Northeastern WY
National Weather Service Rapid City SD
1043 PM MDT Fri Jun 6 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Showers and thunderstorms mainly focused over the Black Hills
  diminishing this evening

- Showers and thunderstorms Saturday afternoon with some strong
  wind gust potential in northern/central South Dakota

- Windy Sunday

- Warming trend mid-week with increasing thunderstorm chances and
  potential severe storms late next week

&&

.DISCUSSION...(This Evening Through Friday)
Issued at 110 PM MDT Fri Jun 6 2025

Water vapor channel satellite imagery shows an upper level trough
moving eastward across Wyoming early this afternoon. Flow is
noticeably stronger at tropopause/jet level, with a distinct PV
anomaly in the models. Lower tropospheric flow is quite weak.

There are two precipitation regimes ongoing today: 1) weak
convection rooted in the mid levels and resultant light
precipitation amounts that has been ongoing from central/southern
Wyoming eastward into Nebraska and far southern South Dakota, 2)
diurnal convection focused within elevated heating regime in the
Black Hills. The latter may have sufficient depth for some charge
separation and lightning later this afternoon, but weak
instability and insufficient low-mid tropospheric flow/shear will
likely limit organization and intensity and convective hazards
beyond lightning. Convection may struggle to maintain east of the
Black Hills as cloud layer flow is weak.

A deepening midlevel trough to our north will force a weakly
baroclinic front through our area tomorrow afternoon. The post-
frontal air mass per model guidance will be slightly more moist,
contributing to a shallow layer of instability atop a deep well
mixed PBL. This should support isolated to scattered diurnal
convection with some potential for strong wind gusts with the more
intense convective cells given the deep PBL mixing. Strengthening
tropospheric flow will support faster storm motions compared to
today (southeasterly at 40-45 mph). There is a low probability of
damaging wind gusts, mainly across roughly the northeast third of
the forecast area where instability is modest but potentially
sufficient mid-afternoon through early evening. The primary
convective threat will be lightning, however.

On Sunday, pressure gradient will be tight between positive MSLP
anomalies in the lee of the Rockies and and trough/surface low to
our east. Coupled with deep diurnal mixing, windy conditions with
gusts to 40-50 mph are expected especially east of the Black
Hills.

Western ridging and associated positive midlevel height anomalies
will migrate eastward across the west and central part of the
country through the week, bringing a warming trend for our region.
Temperatures by Tuesday and Wednesday will rise to at least 10-15
degrees above normal for this time of year. Convection in the
Black Hills due to elevated heating will re-emerge possibly with
the diurnal cycle Tuesday, and more likely Wednesday, as modest
low level moisture return occurs.

Model ensemble spread grows some by the latter part of next week
(Thursday-Friday), though the broader synoptic signal of
increased troughing in the west and somewhat perturbed
southwesterly flow over our region is consistent among the model
suite. Low end severe thunderstorm probabilities exist in the
ensemble-driven CSU machine learning system during this period.
Most models do show instability/shear parameter space favorable
for organized intense convection, with some forcing from upstream
trough.

Early indications for the Day 8-14 period are for above normal
temperatures and near normal precipitation. There is a range of
possibilities in the ensembles at that time range (as is typical),
but a general trend toward retrograding/amplifying ridging over
the area with a progressive pattern still and associated periodic
opportunities for convection.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS Through 06Z Saturday Night)
Issued At 1043 PM MDT Fri Jun 6 2025

Localized MVFR conditions cannot be ruled out in lingering SHRA
across south central SD thru 09z. Otherwise, VFR conditions are
anticipated area-wide thru at least 18z. Thereafter, ISO/SCT
SHRA/TSRA may develop from north to south across the area as a
front arrives, which could bring localized MVFR/IFR conditions.
In addition, gusty northwest winds are anticipated along/behind
the front, with 30-40 kt gusts likely 18-00z over much of northwestern
SD and portions of the northeastern WY plains.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
WY...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION/KEY MESSAGES...Bowers
AVIATION...Sherburn
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Forecast Discussion from: NOAA-NWS Script developed by: El Dorado Weather






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